Thursday February 18, 2016
Economic Calendar & Watch Lists 2/18/2016
Morning Notes
US futures are higher yet again this morning following yesterday’s rally and European stocks are trading higher by over +1% as the price of crude moves higher. St. Louis Fed president Bullard commented on how he believed that subsequent rate hikes should be delayed. Gains in futures were paired after Wal Mart reported weaker than expected sales forecast and is trading -3% in pre market. Asian stocks closed higher.
Technicals
The SPY surged higher again in yesterday’s session showing strength in the follow through movement. Support will lie at the low of yesterday’s range at $191.01, followed by $189.81, and $187.63. Resistance will lie at the high of yesterday’s range at $193.32, followed by heavier resistance at $194.58 and $194.86.
Small Cap Watch List
*Please refer to the momentum scanners displayed live in the chat room for potential plays at the market open.
**Others On Watch**
WMT
JACK
Economic Calendar
8:30 Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +6,000 to 275,000
8:30 Feb Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey expected +0.5 to -3.0
10:00 Jan leading indicators expected -0.2%
11:00 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
1:00 Treasury auctions $7 billion 30-year TIPS
3:30 San Francisco Fed President John Williams delivers a speech on the economic outlook
Notable Earnings Before Open
WMT: Wal-Mart – EPS Est. $1.46, Rev Est. $130.96B
HOT: Starwood Hotels – EPS Est. $.79, Rev Est. $1.44B
DISCA: Discovery Communications – EPS Est. $.41, Rev Est. $1.67B
Notable Earnings After Close
JWN: Nordstroms – EPS Est. $1.22, Rev Est. $4.22B
AMAT: Applied Materials – EPS Est. $.25, Rev Est. $2.24B
February 18th Watch List
ACTG – Coming up off the lows with nice relative volume increase and candle over candle price action. Approaching a breakout spot over $4.00, but not sure if it can get thru. So, the plan is a long entry over $3.93, stop 3.75. Add spot over 4.20 for a move back to 5, short term.
DGI – A good long setup with a bullish run under way and increasing volume. Looking for a move to 16.20-17.30 short term. This trade is a bit extended, but may make a good day trade, swing if it closes near the highs. Long entry over 15.18, stop 14.80.
RPTP – A long period of basing sideways here as IBB and others moved lower. This is finally trading at top of the range and has room back to just below $5. I like this for a long over 4.22, add over 4.45. Stop will be 4.00 initially.
STRP – A nice pullback here to the EMAs is very possible as this is coming off a 135% run in less than a few weeks! Room here is down to below 23.00, then 20. Short entry is under 25.50, add under 25.30. Stop will be over 26.25.
COP – Another oil hedge on watch for the week after what has been a very sharp move up in the sector. Liking this for more downside by March expiration. Looking for about 40 call credit spreads here to match my 80 covered calls. When hedging, we want to be careful to avoid flattening a position by over hedging. If you don’t have the proper options approval, you can just buy March 16 $34 Puts here. Looking at a 36/39 call credit spread for around .75-.80 credit.
IBB*