Friday May 13, 2016
Economic Calendar & Watch Lists 5/13/2016
Morning Notes
US Futures are slightly lower this morning as European stocks trade lower after the Eurozone revised its Q1 GDP lower bringing global growth concerns back to light. Crude oil is under pressure and the dollar strengthens. Asian markets closed lower led by the Nikkei which closed lower by -1.4%.
Technicals
The SPY drifted lower initially in yesterday’s session to test the lower critical support pivot at $205.25 and then bounced thereafter in the close. Support will lie at the low of yesterday’s range at $205.37, followed by the 50 Day SMA at $205.29, and then the support pivot at $205.25. Resistance will lie at the resistance pivot at $207, followed by the high of yesterday’s range at $207.49 and Wednesday’s high at $208.54.
Small Cap Watch List
*Please refer to the momentum scanners displayed live in the chat room for potential plays at the market open.
**Others On Watch**
$JWN
$NVDA
Economic Calendar
8:30 Apr retail sales expected +0.8%, +0.5 ex-autos
8:30 Apr PPI final demand expected +0.3% m/m and +0.2% y/y
10:00 Mar business inventories expected +0.2%
10:00 Preliminary U.S. May University of Michigan consumer sentiment expected +0.5 to 89.5
Notable Earnings Before Open
NONE
Notable Earnings After Close
NONE
May 13th Swing Watch List
Time to repair some options positions.
$MON – Looking at a diagonal roll. With the gap up, IV on the calls has soared, and left a big gap to fill. Closing out the May16 Bear Call spread and opneing a June16 Bear Call spread with 100/105.
$ALK – This one went against us in a hurry. Will look to avg down on the current spread (now trading at .20 mkt) from 1.80. I am willing to add more risk to this trade to lower the average. Also, will consider doing a calendar spread on ALK, for a longer term play. I am long term bullish on ALK, but expect we could see continued bearish move back toward 60 support. A calendar is the perfect way to address this trade type.
$IBB – Since this is a June expiry, I have full confidence we see this back in the money before expiry. I like this for an avg down here near .75c. Current average is 2.00.
$TSN – One of the strongest charts of the year, I think this keeps moving higher following strong earnings. Implied volatility has taken a nose dive, so we will use an in the money debit spread in order to profit the quickest on this, just in case TSN decides to fail at the highs.