Wednesday October 5, 2016
Economic Calendar & Watch Lists
Morning Notes
US Futures are relatively flat to slightly lower this morning while European stocks trade lower after comments last night from Fed president Evans that he expects rates will be raised prior to year’s end. The price of crude edged higher overnight by over +1.5% on API data. Asian stocks closed mostly mixed.
Technicals
The SPY traded lower throughout yesterday’s session and closed on the near term ascending support. Support will lie at the low of yesterday’s range at $213.99, followed by $213.62, $213.44, $213.38, and the 100 day moving average at $213.32. Resistance will lie at the high of yesterday’s range at $216.17, followed by the heavy confluence resistance zone at $216.80, then $217.12 and the upper resistance pivot at $217.30.
Small Cap Watch List
*Please refer to the momentum scanners displayed live in the chat room for potential plays at the market open.
**Others On Watch**
$STZ
$CRM
$REN
Economic Calendar
8:15 September ADP employment change expected +165K
8:30 August trade balance expected -$39.2B
9:45 Final-September Markit services PMI expected unch at 51.9
10:00 August factory orders expected -0.2%
10:00 September ISM non-manufacturing PMI expected +1.6 to 53
10:30 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Notable Earnings Before Open
STZ: Constellation Brands – EPS Est. $1.66, Rev Est. $1.96B
MON: Monsanto – EPS Est. $(.02), Rev Est. $2.35B
Notable Earnings After Close
NONE
October 5th Swing Watch List
$STT – Up in a down market and testing resistance just below a key pivot/breakout spot. Watching this for an options spread, Nov16 70/72.5 bull call spread for a debit of 1.40. Alternatives to this would be a long entry on the stock over 71.62 or buying the Nov16 70c @ $3.40.
$EXPE – Trading at a big top/pivot with great momentum. If the market gives us a push, this goes higher and back toward 125. Extremely low IV makes this setup ideal for a bull call spread if we breakout over 120. Nov16 120/125 call spread for a debit of 2.10 or better. Alternatives would be a long with stock over $120 or using a single leg Nov16 120c for a debit of 5.85 or better.
$SWKS – A nice recent trend, higher lows, forming an ascending wedge under big resistance at the 78.00 pviot spot. A bull call spread setup for Nov16 75/80c for a debit of 2.35 or better. The trick here is making sure SWKS gets over 78. Alternatives to the call spread are long the stock 77.89 or long the Nov16 76c at 5.35.
$TSE – On short watch for a breakdown under the 50 EMA. After a nice run up this summer, we are starting to see lower highs and lower lows. Looking for a short entry under 54.00. Stop will be 55.00. Target here is 52.30 and then 51.