This morning, Bitcoin is back up above 10,000, which has some crypto traders breathing sighs of relief.
As we’ve been reporting, some experts are still predicting much higher Bitcoin numbers by the end of the year, or bigger gains by the end of 2020.
One such figure is Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital: but in the age of breathless BTC predictions, this analyst has some unusually concrete numbers to back up his projections.
Cointelegraph reports today Morehead estimates $42,000 for Bitcoin by the New Year, and that Morehead suggests the magic number could be $356,000 over the next few years.
Speaking on the Unchained podcast Tuesday, Morehead used what he called the logarithmic growth rate.
“Graph the price of Bitcoin logarithmically … its trend is going to grow at 235% compound annual growth rate and … that put Bitcoin at $42,000 at the end of 2019,” Morehead said according to Max Boddy’s report. “And I know this sounds crazy, but we’re essentially halfway back there. …I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year we hit that. And if you just extrapolate that line out for another year it’s $122,000 per Bitcoin and then one more year, $356,000.”
One of the elements cited by Morehead is the idea of a Bitcoin exchange traded fund or ETF.
Although it’s currently in the realm of financial fiction, there really is evidence to suggest that Bitcoin ETFs are coming our way.
The SEC has been dragging its heels on approving a Bitcoin ETF for over a year. Multiple commissioners have spoken about the feasibility of such a move.
One strategy that Bitcoin enthusiasts may be using is to buy and hold some Bitcoin now, while looking at the Bitcoin ETF progress to determine how to rebalance portfolios. When you look at the historic chart, anyone who bought within the past year has seen tremendous growth and unless you were unlucky enough to buy on the $20,000 spike, you’ve probably already made money with Bitcoin. Whether that trend continues is based on various factors – institutional buy-in, consumer awareness and more – but estimates from figures like Daniel Morehead give traders confidence.