$6 billion in Bitcoin options is scheduled to expire today, and analysts looking that new green shoots in terms of replacement order volumes suggest that $80,000 by May is the biggest Bitcoin option purchase on the menu.
In reporting for Cointelegraph, Samuel Haig indicates that 4000 Bitcoins, or over $200 million in BTC options, has been staked on the idea that Bitcoin will rise to a per-coin price of $80,000 by the end of April.
“Should the price be less than $80,000 at the end of April, the contracts will expire worthless, indicating high conviction that the Bitcoin markets are still a long way from topping out among derivatives traders,” Haig writes.
However, Haig also reports that a company called Skew has run analysis showing that this outcome only has a 6% chance of coming true.
Citing input from sources like CME and Deribit, Haig shows how investors are believing in this strike price, despite blowback from analysts.
Long-term, there is also the enthusiasm based on market context factors that Bitcoin will continue to rise.
For example, we have reporting from Greg Thomson today where a George Soros fund manager, Dawn Fitzpatrick, suggests that Bitcoin is no longer an esoteric asset because of “debasement” to the U.S. dollar
“We think the whole infrastructure around crypto is really interesting, and we’ve been making some investments into that infrastructure — and we think that is at an inflection point,” Fitzpatrick reportedly said. “I think when it comes to crypto generally, we’re at a really important moment in time, in that, something like Bitcoin might have stayed a fringe asset, but for the fact that, over the last 12 months, we’ve increased money supply in the U.S. by 25%.”
This type of sentiment has been going around for a while, but it seems that investors are still thinking that BTC has further to go. Bitcoin towers above pre-2021 prices, to be sure, so why not $80,000? Take a deep dive and draw your own conclusions about market factors.