Bitcoin is staying under $10,000 today, with early values around the $9500 mark (it’s sticking to that mark late into the morning, as of press time.)
That’s leading to quite a bit of analysis of where BTC is going next.
This morning Marie Huillet at Cointelegraph reports on Bitcoin’s “sharp downward turn” from highs, but highlights the bullish sentiment that persists in the investor community despite the price lowering.
Citing an analysis piece yesterday, Huillet notes some of the reasons for enthusiasm.
Looking at these arguments, we see several elements providing ballast for investor positivity.
A big part of this idea is that the Bitcoin halving of miner rewards will push values higher as supply and demand adjust.
“(Analysts cited in the piece) say that miners are currently holding on to new mined Bitcoins as they await the 2020 halving event,” writes Horus Hughes in a piece released during the last 24 hours from which Huillet draws conclusions. “If this group of crypto-analysts are correct, then we should begin to see miners selling fewer coins as Bitcoin price gains in the near future. Selling will then resume as buying pressure decreases.”
Hughes also mentions a new all-time high in cold wallet holdings of Bitcoin.
However, this element of the analysis is interesting because it sets up a profound question over whether traders are intentionally buying and holding Bitcoin in cold wallets or whether they have lost their coins.
“I’m not so sure (about the conclusions drawn)” says Adamant Capital founding partner Tuur Demeester as quoted in Highes’ story. “5 years without updating your cold storage method is a long time in Bitcoin. Imo most of these coins are likely lost.”
Then there’s analysis by crypto experts PlanB and ParabolicTrav (look for details here) showing what usually happens after a Bitcoin rally ends.
This involves what they call “miner capitulation” and “adjustments in mining activity” that have the potential for long-term price support.
For context, other parts of the crypto world are also in the green as well, with Ethereum rising 1.2% and Litecoin and Ripple experiencing modest gains – losing coins include Bitcoin SV, Craig Stephen Wright’s wild gambit on Bitcoin Cash hard forking.
