Over a number of years, we’ve seen Bitcoin rise and fall a bit – moving from a long time low of $6500 with a six-month slow crawl, up to $8,000 and $9,000, and then $10,000, only to duck back under that critical investor sentiment mark in recent weeks.
However, analysis of options contracts through the rest of this year shows that some optimistic traders are hoping for a tripling in price by the end of 2020.
Omkar Godbole at Coindesk reports on call options being put in at strike prices as high as $36,000 and $32,000.
Quoted in Godbole’s report, Luuk Strijers, CCO of Deribit, cites “out of the ordinary activity” on options calls that hints of bullish sentiment building on BTC future values.
As for the likelihood of such high Bitcoin prices within the last quarter of this year, experts estimate that there’s only a 5% chance Bitcoin would hit $20,000, and lower chances that it will go even higher.
However, some of the indications and review coming out of studies on likely BTC value in general seems to fly in the face of those numbers: for example, Kevin Helms at Bitcoin.com refers to the June edition of the Crypto Research Report (CRR), in which, he writes: “(Analysts) expect the price of Bitcoin to rise to $19,044 in 2020, $341,000 in 2025, and $397,727 in 2030.”
You might say, for coherence, that there is a greater than 5% chance that BTC will reach that $19,044 mark, just under 20K.
In any case, if this projection is even half right, traders would stand to get 50% returns on value in one quarter, just by moving dollars into Bitcoin, and moving them back out after New Year’s Day.
As for wider gains in the years to come, Helms attributes this statement to the CRR research team:
“We believe that Bitcoin is still at the very start of its adoption curve. The price of $7,200 at the end of 2019 suggests that Bitcoin has penetrated less than 0.44% of its total addressable markets. If this penetration manages to reach 10%, its non-discounted utility price should reach nearly $400,000.”
What’s your Bitcoin strategy? Let us know what you think.
