Thursday February 25, 2016
Economic Calendar & Watch Lists 2/25/2016
Morning Notes
US futures are relatively flat this morning and European stocks are trading sharply higher by nearly +2% after the Eurozone January CPI was revised lower strengthening the case for the ECB to enact stimulus measures. Asian stocks closed mixed across the board.
Technicals
The SPY opened up into a wider and more favorable trading range in yesterday’s session than we have seen in the prior week. Today, support will lie at the low of yesterday’s range at $189.32, followed by $187.63 and then the critical pivot and reversal zone of $187. Resistance will lie at the high of yesterday’s range at $193.53, followed by $194.32, the 50 day moving average at $194.61, and $194.95.
Small Cap Watch List
*Please refer to the momentum scanners displayed live in the chat room for potential plays at the market open.
**Others On Watch**
BBY
W
RH
ETP
Economic Calendar
8:30 Weekly initial unemployment claims expected +8,000 to 270,000, previous -7,000 to 262,000
8:30 Jan durable goods orders expected +2.7% and +0.3% ex transportation
8:30 USDA weekly Export Sales
9:00 Dec FHFA house price index expected +0.5% m/m
11:00 Feb Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity expected +3 to -6
12:00 San Francisco Fed President John Williams speaks
1:00 Treasury auctions $28 billion of 7-year T-notes
Notable Earnings Before Open
BBY: Best Buy – EPS Est. $1.39, Rev Est. $13.61B
CPB: Campbell Soup – EPS Est. $.80, Rev Est. $2.20B
DPZ: Dominos Pizza – EPS Est. $1.11, Rev Est. $707.05M
Notable Earnings After Close
GPS: Gap Stores – EPS Est. $.57, Rev Est. $4.46B
ADSK: Autodesk – EPS Est. $.12, Rev Est. $634.5M
MNST: Monster Energy – EPS Est. $.82, Rev Est. $698.4M
February 25th Watch List
SNDK – A lot of speculation and rumors swirling around a merger event has IV way up high on this. Nothing has been confirmed, finalized or put into motion just yet. Looking to capitalize on the decrease in IV here over the next week or two as this trades in range between 65 and 71. I think this has a better chance of going higher, so only looking for a put spread here. 60/65 should do it. Again, looking for 30% of my net credit, maybe more if this thing breaks out over 71.
DAL -After a sweet run up off 40 support, DAL is gonna run into resistance at the 52 area for awhile. Looking to capitalize on what I anticipate as sideways trading, I want to sell an Iron Condor. Will be seeking a 40/45/52.5/57.5 Iron Condor for a 1.60 Credit. We will see if that gets filled. As always, the target on that will be 30% or .48 in profit.
CSTM – Not usually a fan of metals, but this setup caught my eye. Trading just under big resistance at 5.30 and the 20 EMA, if we get over that area, this is a good look back to 5.85-6 area in a hurry. Long over 5.30, stop 5.00.
NRF – Earnings on 2/26, but a good opportunity for a nice day trade as this could really breakout over 10.80 and move to 11.50-12 in a strong market. Long entry would be over 10.80, stop 10.50.
TSN – On short watch after a massive 7 day candle over candle run for about 20%. I like the strength here, but if market gets week, profit takers and short will come in and murder this thing back to 62. Looking for a short entry under 64.40 (first candle under candle in awhile). Stop will be at the higs 65.42.
