Today Bitcoin is holding right around $3850.
That’s an average between five day lows around $3800 and five day highs around $3900.
It’s also a sort of midpoint between lows of $3500 around Christmas time and over $4000 in February.
Over the longer term, it’s a substantial bottom as Bitcoin plummeted from a $20,000 peak last year to hit right around $4000 in recent months.
Now, today, Bloomberg is reporting that Bitcoin may actually have further to fall, even as hopeful investors sign on to what they see as a good entry point and wait for Bitcoin’s eventual rise.
“Key price movement indicators show that Bitcoin could be heading for another move downward, according to a recent report from Bloomberg on March 12,” wrote Aaron Wood at Cointelegraph last night.
In this technical evaluation, Bloomberg uses the convergence of moving averages known as MACD, which analysts see moving downward through the past month.
Wood cites Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone looking askance at the current market thusly:
“The entire industry is ripe to resume a path to lower prices,” McGlone said, according to the reporting. “Conditions are akin to November, just prior to the collapse. Prices are consolidating within narrowing ranges, with a few sharp bear-market rallies that appear fleeting.”
Although the outlook for Bitcoin may be somewhat soured, other analysts are expecting that some of the smaller “altcoins” on the market will have their time in the sun quite soon.
“It is now alt season,” writes Mati Greenspan, Senior Market Analyst for e-Toro, at Bitcoinist Monday. “Of course, there’s no telling how long this could last, but the signs are all in place. Global volume across crypto exchanges is holding steady at around $30 billion per day, yet Bitcoin’s volume is less than a third of that figure. Sure, bitcoin exchange volumes are still about double what they were in early February, but some coins like Litecoin, EOS, and BNB have more than tripled their daily volumes in the same time frame.
As most coins are traded against BTC, with Bitcoin being the base currency for most altcoins, the fact that volumes are down is very telling of the current market environment.”
Let’s look at two of these altcoins to see what their gains look like over time.
First, one of the coins Greenspan cites has rebounded the most within two months – Litecoin (LTC) stands at $56, over double its price in the middle of December.
More recently LTC has spiked from a starting point of around $42 on February 14 to highs of over $60 this past week.
That’s pretty good growth by any standard, and one reason that investors are eagerly watching Litecoin for gains.
Another altcoin that has traders interested is Tron (TRX) which has moved up maybe 10% or so since December.
The bottom line is that analysts like Greenspan are calling for an altcoin season, ringing that bell appropriated from King Solomon by the Byrds in the 1960s.
Is it “altcoin season” this spring?